The RISP 500™ is a 15-variable composite risk indicator for U.S. equity markets. Four years of publicly time-stamped live trading results. Serving financial advisors, RIAs, and institutional investors.
Live track record (daily updated) — see table →
View 2022–2025 Live Track Record Read the SSRN paperThe RISP 500™ was designed for investment professionals whose first obligation is to safeguard their clients' wealth — and whose competitive edge depends on beating benchmarks and winning the battle for AUM. Since WWII, the U.S. stock market exponential growth has benefitted from the unparalleled power of the United States in the world; the coming decades will be more challenging. For financial professionals, a systematic risk-first framework is no longer optional.
Every strategy guided by the RISP 500™ outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark over the full four-year period. Results are consistent across different asset classes, leverage levels, and RPT calibrations. The main goal of two-level strategies is to seek protection when market risks spike and remain HIGH. Three-level strategies excelled over two-level strategies by adding a new dimension: the possibility of turbo-charging performance during periods of strong bull market (when risks are LOW).
| Strategy | 4-Yr Return | CAGR | Max DD | RoMaD | $100k grew to |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Strategy3-LEVELSSO / SPY / GLD · RPT-1 70% · RPT-2 90% | +328.73% | ~42.8% | −15.97% | 20.9× | $428,729 |
| Nasdaq 100 Strategy3-LEVELQLD / QQQ / GLD · RPT-1 70% · RPT-2 90% | +401.00% | ~48.5% | −24.23% | 16.9× | $500,999 |
| Volatility Strategy3-LEVELSVXY / SPY / VIXM · RPT-1 75% · RPT-2 96% | +321.70% | ~41.5% | −18.36% | 17.4× | $421,702 |
| SPY or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 1 · RPT 75% | +55.81% | ~11.6% | −8.72% | 6.4× | $155,810 |
| QQQ or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 2 · RPT 75% | +77.84% | ~15.6% | −14.52% | 5.4× | $177,840 |
| SSO or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 3 · RPT 75% | +121.19% | ~21.7% | −18.58% | 6.5× | $221,190 |
| QLD or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 4 · RPT 75% | +183.33% | ~29.4% | −31.70% | 5.8× | $283,330 |
| SVXY or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 5 · RPT 75% | +207.66% | ~31.4% | −21.16% | 9.8× | $307,660 |
| SPY (Buy & Hold Benchmark) | +43.57% | ~9.5% | −25.36% | 1.8× | $143,574 |
Four years of compounding, live-verified. Each data point was publicly posted before or at execution. Hover over the chart to inspect values at any date. MOBILE: Flip the phone to landscape orientation to view charts.
Monthly data points · All values computed from publicly posted daily results · Chart data updated manually · MOBILE: Flip the phone to landscape orientation to view charts.
SMIGRM inverts the conventional portfolio management paradigm. Instead of selecting assets and then managing risk, the RISP 500™ measures risk first — and asset allocation naturally becomes obvious from that assessment. And yes, it works with any portfolio and any strategy the practitioner currently uses; it won't conflict; rather it will strenghten the practitioner's existing strategies.
Each data point is the daily composite risk reading — a percentile rank from 0 to 100 relative to all observations since April 2008. The shaded zones show the three allocation levels: below RPT-1 (risk-on), between RPT-1 and RPT-2 (intermediate), above RPT-2 (defensive).
Shaded zones based on standard RPT-1 = 70% · RPT-2 = 90% · Updated daily after market close · Data sourced from live Excel tracker
The RISP 500™ composite is built from variables that most practitioners track separately but never synthesise to form an accurate risk profile for the market. The volatility complex alone — VRP, VIX, VVIX, term structures, roll yield — encodes the forward-looking risk assessments of volatility dealers who price and hedge institutional downside protection.
Ask yourself what is most accurate: your opinion, his or her opinion, or the market's collective opinion and sentiment scanned and captured in real-time? The composite produces a historically calibrated percentile rank that answers this question objectively every single day. 100% data-based. No subjectivity or biases involved. Period.
When all three principles work together, they form an exceptionally powerful combination. Casinos operating on probabilistic environments understood these principles for ages: they don't gamble but assure long-term survival and profitability; they rig the game in their favor using the same principles. Does it work in the stock market investing world, which is also probabilistic (unpredictable)? Well, our results prove it — four years of live trading and counting.
In 2022, the S&P 500 fell 19.48%. Bonds fell simultaneously. Every diversified portfolio lost money. The 60/40 model — the industry's most popular portfolio allocation model — failed regardless of the stock-to-bond ratio.
The RISP 500™ S&P 500 Strategy returned +41.67% the same year. Not in a backtest like every single previous crashes the RISP 500™ caught early (e.g., 2008 GFC, 2018 Volgameddon, 2020 Coronavirus, etc.). For 2022 and beyond: A live, publicly posted, daily-verified result.
This single-year differential — 61 percentage points in one calendar year — is the empirical proof of concept for the framework's core mechanism: de-risking the position on rising market risks and re-risking the position on falling market risks. The goal is not predict the market (it's impossible). It's to identify and understand the changing context fast to take action early.
In all four years (2022-2025), the RISP 500™ S&P 500 Strategy returned +328.73% vs. 43.57% for the SPY ETF over the same period. Impressive, yes, but the most important feature is that it beat the benchmark with significantly lower drawdowns: −15.97% vs. −25.36% for the SPY. As a result, the Strategy's return-to-risk ratio measured by RoMaD was substantially stronger: 20.9× vs. 1.8× for the benchmark SPY ETF over the period.
This is the empirical proof of concept for the framework's core mechanism: de-risking the position on rising market risks and re-risking the position on falling market risks.
Not a backtest. A live, publicly posted (Facebook and X), daily-verified result. We post it every day after the close or in the next morning before the market opens. For total transparency, you can download the entire daily history with the daily RISP 500™ reading, executed prices, and P&L calculation here (Excel file):
⬇ Download the entire history here - XLSX file (coming soon)Published on SSRN. Submitted to Journal of Investing. Full methodology, four-year live trading evidence, literature review, and statistical analysis. Free download.
Published on SSRN. The Whipsaw Problem — Part I: detection, measurement, and impact on tactical signal-based strategies. Free download.
Published on SSRN. The Whipsaw Problem — Part II: the SWORD detection model and empirical validation working together with the RISP 500™. Free download.
Most signal services charge a flat fee regardless of who uses them or how much capital is at stake. We do not. The RISP 500™ is a professional risk management tool designed for use by credentialed investment managers. Individual investors pay for the signal. Professional advisors and institutional managers pay in proportion to the AUM they protect — because protecting $400M from a bear market is not the same problem as protecting $400k. Every tier starts at a deeply discounted Year 1 Evaluation Rate so you can experience a full market cycle before committing at the standard rate.
The RISP 500™ is an experience good — its true value only becomes clear when you live through a genuine market stress event with it. A 60-day free trial may fall entirely in a calm market period, leaving you with no dramatic proof of concept. We believe a full calendar year is the minimum meaningful test window. In any 12-month period, there will be at least one risk event — a volatility spike, a Fed surprise, a sector shock — where the RISP 500™ demonstrates its core mechanism: de-risking your position before the damage is done, and re-risking as conditions normalise. The Year 1 Evaluation Rate lets you experience that at a fraction of the standard cost. From Year 2 onwards, you pay the standard rate — because by then you have seen it work— We are sure you'll be impressed.
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Why AUM-scaled pricing for professionals? A signal that helps protect $100M from a 2022-style bear market is worth orders of magnitude more than the same signal applied to a $100k personal account. Professional tiers are priced accordingly — but even at scale, the cost remains a fraction of one year's management fees. All professional tiers include a 25% Year 1 Evaluation Rate and a 30-day money-back guarantee.
← swipe to see all tiers →
← swipe to see all tiers →
Professional tier pricing is based on AUM self-declared at subscription. U.S. RIAs: AUM is publicly verifiable via SEC Form ADV. Brazilian managers: verifiable via CVM public filings. Pricing tiers are reviewed annually — existing subscribers receive 60 days notice before any adjustment. Not sure which tier fits? Email us →
Year 1 Evaluation Rates apply to your first annual subscription. From Year 2, subscriptions renew at the standard annual rate. Subscribers who renew early (30+ days before expiry) receive a 10% loyalty discount on their Year 2 standard rate — making honest renewal cheaper than any workaround. Introductory rate is one per subscriber household, verified at payment.
Receive the daily RISP 500™ signal for 60 days. Track your hypothetical $100k position weekly. See the results for yourself before committing a dollar.
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From independent RIAs in California to hedge fund managers in New York, family offices in Germany, and fund managers in Brazil — the RISP 500™ is trusted by practitioners managing real capital.
"Saved me from the current melt down on SPY and my entire portfolio (April 2 Liberation Day)"
"I've been using the system for about four months, and so far, I see great potential. I love how it simplifies trading by first determining your risk threshold and then using that as a clear guide for decision-making. It's reassuring to be out of the market during periods of high volatility while others are panicking. While time will ultimately tell, my experience so far has been very positive. Thank you!"
"I found the daily report very clear and accurate. RISP 500 gives me an important additional degree of comfort that I will not overexpose my positions in an unpredictable volatile market. Thanks!"
"Reliance is the most important part in a business relationship. We receive the daily risk indicator produced by Risk Scientific LLC. It has this diferencial. The system this company developed gained our trust. It makes a huge difference for our clients."
"Sidney has been a treasure in my way to understand the market. Thanks to his method I can invest in a safe and constant way in order to achieve my financial goals."
"O seu Sistema de Controle de risco foi indicado por um colega do mercado financeiro numa conversa informal. Confesso que fiquei cético quando ele falou dos resultados de bater o S&P 500 todo ano. Tem muita gente picareta aqui no Brasil então a gente fica desconfiado naturalmente, né? Mas ainda bem que decidi fazer o free trial, pois fez toda a diferença. Durante o free trial mesmo, já me deu resultado e passei a implementar nas carteiras dos meus clientes. Já sou seu assinante e mais que isso, virei seu fã."
"I love the information that is provided on a daily basis. Sidney's market analysis helps me to see how the markets are responding to various factors. I believe this method is the safest and most effective way to invest."
"Thank you for changing my life."
Ten questions answered at practitioner depth — for RIAs, fund managers, and institutional allocators doing real due diligence.