SMIGRM Research Series · Paper No. 1 · SSRN

Risk management
that leads
the market.

The RISP 500™ is a 15-variable composite risk indicator for U.S. equity markets. Four years of publicly time-stamped live trading results. Serving financial advisors, RIAs, and institutional investors.

Performance · Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 Live verified
Cum. Return
RoMaD
S&P 500 StrategySSO / SPY / GLD · 3-Level
+328.73%
20.9×
Nasdaq 100 StrategyQLD / QQQ / GLD · 3-Level
+401.00%
16.9×
SPY (Buy & Hold)Benchmark
+43.57%
1.8×
Who it serves

Built for practitioners
who manage real capital.

The RISP 500™ was designed for investment professionals whose first obligation is to safeguard their clients' wealth — and whose competitive edge depends on beating benchmarks and winning the battle for AUM. Since WWII, the U.S. stock market exponential growth has benefitted from the unparalleled power of the United States in the world; the coming decades will be more challenging. For financial professionals, a systematic risk-first framework is no longer optional.

🏛️
Family Offices & Hedge Funds
$50M–$2B. Quantitatively sophisticated. Seeking a real-time, forward-looking composite risk indicator that integrates volatility, fixed income, and macro data into one actionable daily number — and that can provide a definitive edge.
→ Tiers 3–4 recommended
🌐
International Allocators
Fund managers in Brazil, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East seeking U.S. equity exposure with professional risk management infrastructure and a US-based partner who understands their market context.
→ Tiers 4–5 recommended
📊
Sophisticated Individual Investors (HNWI and UHNWI)
High-net-worth self-directed investors who understand risk-adjusted returns, have experienced a major drawdown, and want a systematic daily indicator rather than media noise and conflicting expert opinions.
→ Tiers 1–2 recommended
Live track record · All 8 strategies

Four years. Eight strategies.
All outperformed.

Every strategy guided by the RISP 500™ outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark over the full four-year period. Results are consistent across different asset classes, leverage levels, and RPT calibrations. The main goal of two-level strategies is to seek protection when market risks rise. Three-level strategies excelled over two-level strategies by turbo-charging performance during periods of strong bull market (when risks are low).

Strategy 4-Yr Return CAGR Max DD RoMaD $100k grew to
S&P 500 Strategy3-LEVELSSO / SPY / GLD · RPT-1 70% · RPT-2 90% +328.73% ~42.8% −15.97% 20.9× $428,729
Nasdaq 100 Strategy3-LEVELQLD / QQQ / GLD · RPT-1 70% · RPT-2 90% +401.00% ~48.5% −24.23% 16.9× $500,999
Volatility Strategy3-LEVELSVXY / SPY / VIXM · RPT-1 75% · RPT-2 96% +321.70% ~41.5% −18.36% 17.4× $421,702
SPY or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 1 · RPT 75% +55.81% ~11.6% −8.72% 6.4× $155,810
QQQ or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 2 · RPT 75% +77.84% ~15.6% −14.52% 5.4× $177,840
SSO or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 3 · RPT 75% +121.19% ~21.7% −18.58% 6.5× $221,190
QLD or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 4 · RPT 75% +183.33% ~29.4% −31.70% 5.8× $283,330
SVXY or Cash2-LEVELStrategy 5 · RPT 75% +207.66% ~31.4% −21.16% 9.8× $307,660
SPY (Buy & Hold Benchmark) +43.57% ~9.5% −25.36% 1.8× $143,574
Jan 1, 2022 – Dec 31, 2025 · $100,000 initial investment · Corrected P&L methodology · Daily results verified: facebook.com/risp500 & x.com/risp500
How it works

Risk measurement
as the primary signal.

SMIGRM inverts the conventional portfolio management paradigm. Instead of selecting assets and then managing risk, the RISP 500™ measures risk first — and asset allocation naturally becomes obvious from that assessment. And yes, it works with any portfolio and any strategy the practtioner currently uses; it won't conflict; rather it will strenghten existing strategies.

01 / MEASURE
The RISP 500™ Indicator
More than 15 variables — spanning the VIX complex, fixed income and equity markets, macroeconomic leading indicators, and Fed policy expectations — synthesised into a single and convenient daily percentile-ranked risk score. Calculated each morning between 10:00–10:30am ET.
15+ variables · daily composite score
02 / DECIDE
Risk Percentile Threshold
Each subscriber sets two personalised RPTs — RPT-2 is the level above which portfolios rotate to safety. RPT-1 is the level below which portfolios rotate to accelerate wealth. Fully personalised: lower thresholds for conservative clients and higher ones for aggressive clients. Only when the RISP 500™ crosses a RPT is an action taken. Most days, no action is needed.
~1 trade per 2 weeks average turnover
03 / ROTATE
Context-Dependent Dynamic Allocation
Contrary to the industry-standard fixed allocation — which ignores market regimes and depends entirely on the correlation assumption holding — SMIGRM dynamically changes allocation in response to the actual risk environment. Three-level strategies provide granular control; two-level strategies provide simplicity. All using liquid ETFs, all executable in minutes.
<5 min per day to implement
The indicator

More than 15 variables.
One indicator.

The RISP 500™ composite is built from variables that most practitioners track separately but never synthesise to form an accurate risk profile for the market. The volatility complex alone — VRP, VIX, VVIX, term structures, roll yield — encodes the forward-looking risk assessments of volatility dealers who price and hedge institutional downside protection.

Ask yourself what is most accurate: your opinion, my opinion, or the market's collective opinion and sentiment scanned and captured in real-time? The composite produces a historically calibrated percentile rank that answers this question objectively every single day.

The 3 Key Principles for Sustained Statistical Success

When all three principles work together, they form an exceptionally powerful combination. The results prove it — four years of live trading and counting.

01
Statistical Edge
Invest only when risk conditions favour a positive outcome. Quantified odds, not market opinions.
02
Asymmetrical Payoff
Limit losses early. Let upside run. The framework enforces this by design through threshold-based rotation.
03
Law of Large Numbers
A consistent edge applied across 100+ rotation cycles per year converges to a favourable expected outcome.
Volatility Complex
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)
VIX — CBOE Volatility Index
VIX Cash Term Structure
VIX Futures Term Structure
Roll Yield (contango / backwardation)
VVIX — Volatility of VIX
Equity and Fixed Income
MOVE Index (bond market volatility)
Yield Curve Inversions
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)
Macro & Policy
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
Fed Rate Hike / Cut Probabilities
Additional variables (proprietary)
2022
The year that proved the framework

The year stocks and bonds fell together.

In 2022, the S&P 500 fell 19.48%. Bonds fell simultaneously. Every diversified portfolio lost money. The 60/40 model — the industry's most popular portfolio allocation model — failed regardless of the stock-to-bond ratio.

The RISP 500™ S&P 500 Strategy returned +41.67% the same year. Not a backtest. A live, publicly posted, daily-verified result.

This single-year differential — 61 percentage points in one calendar year — is the empirical proof of concept for the framework's core mechanism: de-risking the position on rising market risks and re-risking the position on falling market risks.

+41.67%
S&P 500 Strategy
2022 annual return
−19.48%
SPY Benchmark
2022 annual return
−15.97%
Max Drawdown
Strategy (4-year)
−25.36%
Max Drawdown
SPY (4-year)
$428,729
S&P 500 Strategy · $100k grew to
vs $143,574 for SPY · Jan 2022 – Dec 2025

SMIGRM Research Series — Paper No. 1

Published on SSRN. Submitted to Journal of Investing. Full methodology, four-year live trading evidence, literature review, and statistical analysis. Free download.

Service tiers

Choose your level
of risk intelligence.

From a daily email signal for individual investors to a real-time institutional feed with custom strategy configuration. All tiers include the core RISP 500™ signal and access to the full four-year performance archive.

Individual
Basic Signal
$97/mo
or $924/year — save 21%
  • Daily RISP 500™ by email, 10–10:30am ET
  • Weekly performance vs. SPY
  • Strategy archive (all 8)
  • RPT onboarding guide
Start 60-day trial
Active investor
Signal + Alerts
$197/mo
or $1,897/year — save 20%
  • Everything in Basic
  • Intraday RPT threshold alerts
  • Monthly market commentary
  • Priority support
Get started
Institutional
Real-Time Feed
$12k/yr
Multi-seat: $18k/yr (3 seats)
  • Everything in Advisor
  • Minute-by-minute intraday feed
  • Unlimited RPT optimisation
  • Monthly strategy review call
  • Dedicated relationship mgmt
Schedule a call
Advisory
Remote Advisory
Custom
$3k–$10k/month indicative
  • Everything in Real-Time
  • Real-time buy/sell signals
  • Daily risk monitoring
  • Hedging & stop-loss guidance
  • For international firms
Enquire now
Start here

The 60-Day Challenge.

Receive the daily RISP 500™ signal for 60 days. Track your hypothetical $100k position weekly. See the results for yourself before committing a dollar.

1
Set your RPT level
2
Receive the daily signal
3
Track your P&L weekly
4
Day 60: compare the results
Start your free 60-day trial →

No credit card required · Cancel anytime · Fixed 60-day clock