Sidney Shauy, MBA — Founder, Risk Scientific LLC
Founder · Risk Scientific LLC

Sidney Shauy,
MBA

Creator of the RISP 500™ and the SMIGRM Framework

Thirty years managing risk across the world's major financial markets — from the trading floors of Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, ABN Amro, Lloyds Bank, and BBVA in New York, Hong Kong, and São Paulo, including 15 years of independent risk management research in personal risk lab developing SMIGRM — through the Mexican Crisis, Asian Crisis, Russian Crisis, the 2000 dot-com collapse, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 COVID crash.

That experience forged a conviction: the financial industry's risk management toolkit hasn't significantly evolved in decades since VaR and Monte Carlo. Portfolio management is still totally dependent on the correlation assumption holding. With the advent of the VIX Futures market, new possibilities emerged for data mining to read the mind and pulse of the market. After nearly a decade of research and testing, SMIGRM (Stock Market Investing Guided by Risk Management) and the RISP 500™ indicator emerged — and have been live-traded with publicly verifiable daily results since January 1, 2022.

Sidney Shauy
MBA · WHARTON SCHOOL · UPENN · NYU COURANT
Citigroup
Morgan Stanley
ABN Amro Bank
Lloyds Bank
BBVA New York
JP Morgan Chase
Trading & Portfolio Management
Derivatives Structuring (exotic & hybrid)
Risk Management — multi-billion AUM
Model Development, Testing, Calibration
Private Client Wealth Management
MBA — Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Mathematics in Finance (N/D) — NYU Courant Institute
Engineering (Automation) — Poli/USP, Brazil
English · Portuguese · Spanish · Mandarin

Thirty years.
Six continents. Multiple crises.

2020s–Present
Risk Scientific LLC
Founder & Chief Research Officer
Founded Risk Scientific LLC to develop SMIGRM and the RISP 500™ — a 15-variable composite risk indicator for U.S. equity markets. Live trading since January 2022 with publicly time-stamped daily results. Author of five books on investment and risk management. Serves wealth managers, RIAs, HNWI, and institutional investors across the U.S. and internationally.
RISP 500™SMIGRMRisk researchPublications
2010s–2020s
Personal Risk Lab · Deloitte Consulting · JPMorgan Chase
Lead RISP 500™ Researcher · Subject Matter Expert
Since the 2008 GFC, the idea to develop an early crash detector was born from an informal student discussion after a class at NYU Courant Institute. Early prototypes failed. Several improvements and refinements followed over more than 10 years. An algorithm to produce the RISP 500™ was developed — the Risk Index for the S&P 500. Served as Subject Matter Expert in Banking & Treasury. Advised high-net-worth clients on portfolio structuring and risk management frameworks.
Risk Management ResearchModel DevelopmentHNW AdvisoryNew York
2000s–2010s
Morgan Stanley Hong Kong · BBVA New York
Trader & Risk Manager
Equity Trading Asia Pacific. Trading and portfolio management of the long-term interest rate derivatives portfolio. Senior advisory roles spanning derivatives structuring and risk management across BBVA New York and Madrid.
DerivativesTrading & Portfolio ManagementRisk ManagementNew YorkMadrid
1990s–2000s
Citibank · Lloyds Bank · ABN Amro
Derivatives Trader
Trading and portfolio management across interest rate derivatives, currency derivatives, and structured products. Developed a tri-indexed investment product based on Hull-White and Rainbow Options methodology. Managed multi-billion dollar positions through the Russian Crisis (1998) and the Brazilian Real devaluation (1999).
IR DerivativesFXMulti-billion AUMBrazilEmerging Markets

What thirty years
of crises produced.

SMIGRM
Stock Market Investing Guided by Risk Management
A tactical investment framework in which real-time risk quantification — not depending on low correlation assumption to hold — serves as the primary driver of asset allocation. Context-Dependent Dynamic Asset Allocation: portfolios hold risk assets when risk is low and rotate to safety when risk is elevated. Built on three pillars: Statistical Edge, Asymmetrical Payoff, and the Law of Large Numbers.
Published on SSRN · Submitted to Journal of Investing · 2026
RISP 500™
Risk Index for the S&P 500
A proprietary composite indicator aggregating 15+ variables — from the VIX complex, equity & fixed income markets, macroeconomic leading indicators, and Fed policy expectations — into a single daily percentile-ranked risk score. Live-traded since January 1, 2022, with daily results published publicly on Facebook and X. Four-year cumulative outperformance: +328.73% (S&P 500 Strategy) vs +43.57% for SPY.
Live since Jan 2022 · Daily time-stamped · 8 strategies tested

Jan 2022 – Dec 2025.
Publicly verified, every day.

Four-year performance · $100,000 initial investment per strategy Daily verified
4-Yr Return
Max DD
RoMaD
S&P 500 StrategySSO/SPY/GLD · 3-Level
+328.73%
−15.97%
20.9×
Nasdaq 100 StrategyQLD/QQQ/GLD · 3-Level
+401.00%
−24.23%
16.9×
Volatility StrategySVXY/SPY/VIXM · 3-Level
+321.70%
−18.36%
17.4×
SPY (Buy & Hold Benchmark)
+43.57%
−25.36%
1.8×

Daily results: facebook.com/risp500  ·  x.com/risp500  ·  Full trading blotter available to institutional subscribers

Research & books.

SSRN WORKING PAPER · 2026
Stock Market Investing Guided by Risk Management: A Context-Dependent Dynamic Asset Allocation Framework and Four-Year Live Trading Evidence
SMIGRM Research Series, Paper No. 1. Published on SSRN. Submitted to Journal of Investing. Full methodology, literature review, statistical analysis, and four-year live trading results across eight strategies.
View on SSRN →
SSRN POLICY PAPER · 2026
Global Finance: Framework for Financial Opening with Stability for China's Pilot Zones
A structured policy framework for China's financial opening, drawing on three decades of experience across emerging and developed markets. Proposes a rules-based capital flow management system (ACFF) and real-time monitoring tools for China's Free Trade Zones.
View on SSRN →
BOOK · PALLAS VESTA PUBLISHING · 2024
Stock Market Investing Guided by Risk Management (SMIGRM)
The foundational text of the SMIGRM methodology. 235 pages covering the full theoretical framework, indicator construction, strategy design, and performance evidence. Also available on Amazon.
Available on Amazon →
BOOK · PALLAS VESTA PUBLISHING · 2024
Achieving Wealth Preservation with High Returns: Redefining Wealth Management
A practitioner guide applying the SMIGRM framework to wealth management. Addresses the persistent paradox of simultaneous wealth preservation and high returns. Includes live trading evidence and strategy implementation guidance for financial advisors.

Ready to discuss
your specific situation?

Whether you manage $20M or $2B, whether you are based in New York, São Paulo, or Singapore — the RISP 500™ framework can be configured to your mandate, your risk tolerance, and your client obligations. The conversation starts with a 30-minute call.